Alarmist headlines concerning the Balkan region are appearing ever more often in the news flow: Montenegro is preparing to introduce visas for Russians, Serbia, under the Western pressure, is about to begin pursuing an anti-Russian policy… If all these rumors are to be believed, the impression emerges that the Serbian-Russian friendship, that has been praised so often, is coming to an end.
Objectively, there is a grain of truth in such alarmist statements: recently, relations between Russia and the countries of the Balkan region have shown a tendency towards a certain mutual cooling. However, it is important to remember that the positions of political leaders and their actions do not always reflect public sentiment.
In the first part of an interview with RGM.Magazine, Pavel Bushuyev, head of the Department of Balkan Studies at the Institute of CIS Countries and chief-editor of the magazine ‘Balkan Diplomat’, spoke about the mood among authorities and the public in the Balkans, which rumors remain speculations and which are supported by real facts, and also explained what truly sustains Russian-Serbian brotherhood.
What prompted you to connect your life with the study of the Balkan region?
With the Balkans, it turns out that you do not choose them; they choose you. I began working on the region to a certain extent by chance. It all began during my student years, when I wanted to study Rusyn culture, history, and language. The fact is that I am Rusyn on my grandfather’s side, and their culture appears close to me. The subject of the Rusyns itself is highly politicized, because Ukrainians, Poles, Slovaks and even Romanians, who are not Slavs at all, consider themselves to belong to this ethnic group. Perhaps for that reason, at the philological faculty of Moscow State University I was unable to find a research supervisor for this topic.
Instead, I was told that in Serbia, at the University of Novi Sad, there was an entire department of the Rusyn language, and in the autonomous province of Vojvodina there was even a radio station broadcasting in that language. And that was surprising – in the 2000s, when the Milosevic regime had only just fallen. Serbs were accused of every possible sin, including the oppression of small peoples, but in practice it turned out that it was precisely in Serbia, at least in relation to the Rusyns, that genuine educational and linguistic democracy existed and continues to exist. This was despite the fact that in those years no one else in Europe recognized Rusyn as an independent national language at all. Naturally, I became enthusiastic about the idea of cooperating with the University of Novi Sad, for which I began studying Serbian. Soon I learned about an opportunity to practice at a language school in Serbia itself. That is how, in 2008, I found myself in the small town of Valjevo, and it was there that I encountered and fell in love with Serbian color and culture.
As I immersed myself more deeply in the study of life in the Balkan region, my plans related to the Rusyn language began to recede into the background. In addition, more experienced colleagues at Moscow University advanced my ideas, and through their efforts Rusyn was recognized as the fourth East Slavic language. That event freed my hands, and I was able to devote myself without pangs of conscience to what I had come to love – the Balkans.
By the time I graduated from university, I was already married, my son had been born, and I could not continue doing science alone – I had to earn a living. By chance, I ended up at TASS and, several years later, returned to Serbia – this time as the head of the news agency’s bureau in the Balkans.
Do you continue to cooperate with TASS?
The agency’s director general likes to repeat that TASS is like an off-road vehicle. It rattles, makes noise, and is not especially comfortable, but once you have taken a ride in it, you return to it again and again. So, the news agency remains an important part of my life, but at this particular moment I am not cooperating with it. One has to understand the specifics of working at a news agency – it is literally a conveyor belt. The working day begins at seven in the morning; you plunge headlong into the information flow and remember only closer to midnight that you have not even had breakfast. I wanted to do something else besides journalism, to devote myself to humanitarian projects and the promotion of Russian soft power, so I decided to suspend my cooperation with TASS. Yes, sometimes I miss working at the news agency; after all, it was there that I acquired many of the skills that still help me today. But now I am fully and completely focused on my work at the Department of Balkan Studies of the Institute of CIS Countries and am involved in a number of other projects connected with Serbia and the region.
The Balkans are a very diverse and complex region. Let us try to understand it. Which countries have completely closed themselves off from cooperation with Russia in recent years, and which remain interested in maintaining or even developing contacts?
To answer this question, one must immediately, so to say, separate the wheat from the chaff. There are peoples, and there are states. If we are speaking specifically about the people, then in Republika Srpska about 90%, in Serbia 80%, in Montenegro 70%, and no less than 50% of the population of Macedonia are favorably disposed towards Russia. Ordinary people want to be friends with us and trust us. But the political line of governments forces the population to distance itself from Russia. For example, Croatia, Slovenia and Macedonia itself have turned away from us almost completely. Moreover, the Croats and Slovenes have even invented a separate term, ‘Western Balkans’, through which they distance themselves not only from Russia, but also from their neighbors in the region.
There is nothing surprising in this process, given how many Western forces are present in the Balkan countries. For instance, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic likes to compare Belgrade to Casablanca in 1944, meaning that intelligence services from 54 countries are based in the city. Naturally, the presence of foreign agents puts enormous pressure on officials. If someone goes, let us say, to a concert at the Russian House, the very next day representatives of Western embassies start calling his phone nonstop and asking why he was there, what he saw, and what he heard. If such a situation exists in Serbia, then imagine what pressure is exerted on officials in other Balkan countries that are more dependent on the West. That is why every public statement by local officials in support of Russia is very important – only those people who sincerely believe in our country and see the struggle to preserve friendly relations with us as an important goal in their lives can afford it.
Let us speak more in detail about the countries. Let us begin with Serbia. This country has traditionally been friendly towards Russia, but the media are now circulating rumors that it is looking increasingly towards Western Europe and that its former sympathies are melting right now. Is that really the case, or are media representatives, as usual, raising the temperature?
Talks that Belgrade is about to turn away from us has been going on for decades. When I came to Serbia in 2008 to learn the language, Boris Tadic was president. The people hated him fiercely for his pro-Western course, but they could do nothing. When I returned to Serbia as a correspondent in 2017, the country was led by the current president, Aleksandar Vucic. I remember well how his words leaked to the public after he spoke at a meeting with graduates of a higher education institution that trains personnel for the special services. He said that he would turn the country’s political vector towards the West, but that such a decision would create a crack in Serbian society that would be very difficult to mend and that could swallow any government.
Indeed, it would be much easier for Vucic to yield to Western pressure, impose sanctions against Russia, and adopt the other anti-Russian measures being forced upon him. At the same time, he understands perfectly well that beneath him lies the mouth of a volcano filled with the lava of people’s sympathy and love for Russia, which could at any moment blow up the entire region. Pushkin’s famous words about Russian rebellion apply no less to any Slavic people. And Serbian politicians know their people perfectly well, are part of them, monitor the public mood, and therefore behave very cautiously.
Yes, there is movement towards the West, but it consists of very small steps. Of course, the temperature in our relations is also decreasing, albeit very slowly. Let us say that today Russians are treated a little more coolly than in 2008, when I first arrived in Serbia. But it is important to understand that all this is a very delicate matter that moves along a sine wave. And if today we are observing a decline, that does not at all mean that tomorrow there will not be a surge of this sympathy, and that the traces of all these small steps towards the West will not be washed away all at once.
Let us move to Republika Srpska, an autonomous entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina. Does it still remain a stronghold of Russian influence in the Balkans, or are things not so clear-cut there either?
Again, it is important to distinguish between politics and the people. The roots and interconnections here are too deep – people understand and remember that almost every Balkan church older than 1914 was built or repaired with the money of Russian tsars and emperors. This knowledge results in the sometimes inexplicable love of Serbs for Russia manifesting itself in Republika Srpska even more vividly than in Serbia.
At the political level, of course, everything is more complicated. Republika Srpska has to balance, and if that is difficult for Vucic, imagine what the leadership of a small autonomous entity faces. In addition, it also depends on relations with Serbia itself, because without Serbia’s support the Republic simply could not exist. If the borders suddenly close and the terrible events of the 1990s are repeated, there will be no one to come to the rescue. The tragedy of our relations lies in the fact that, despite all our desire to help, we do not have such an opportunity. Yes, Russia is trying to strengthen friendship with Republika Srpska, working to ensure that our energy resources reach the autonomous entity and engaging in other projects, but the key problem is the lack of convenient logistics. Neither Serbia nor Republika Srpska has access to the sea, and for Russia they therefore become a treasure that cannot be carried away.
It is fundamentally wrong to accuse these countries of insufficient desire to be friends with us. After all, we cannot replace the 70% of trade that is conducted with European countries, because we do not have a land border. It is easy to say ‘either you are with us or you are against us’ when Moscow is behind us, and beyond Moscow there are two oceans. They have nowhere to retreat. Therefore, it seems to me that the Kremlin is pursuing the only correct policy in relations with these countries – emphasizing its influence in the region, outlining priorities, but not forcing the leadership of Serbia and Republika Srpska to make a mandatory choice about whom to cooperate with as a priority.
Today, Russia does not have many friends left on the global scale, and they must under no circumstances be sacrificed. These are difficult times; they must be waited out – and the Serbs are masters at this. They have an expression, ‘kupovati vreme,’ which literally translates as ‘buying time,’ and that is exactly what they are doing now as they wait for the moment when everything returns to its proper course and relations with Russia can be strengthened.
How do things stand with Montenegro? It is said that it has yielded to European pressure and is about to abandon its visa-free regime with Russia. How would you comment?
I will begin by saying that Montenegro is the third part of the divided Serbian people. We have already spoken about the first two. In the past, Montenegrins were the name given to Serbs who lived in this part of the Balkans. No one could have imagined that they would be turned into a separate nation, and that a geographical definition would be turned into a national term. Yes, the longer Montenegro exists as an independent state, the more people identify themselves as Montenegrins – from the European name of the country, Montenegro. In this way, they emphasize their difference from Serbs, but such people still remain a minority. Montenegrins’ sympathies towards Russia are divided geographically. The part located farther from the coast is predominantly Russophile.
Russophilia in this part of the Balkans has deep roots. For example, Montenegrins joined Russia in the war against Japan at the beginning of the 20th century. Montenegrin participation in the Russian-Japanese War might seem curious because of the country’s modest size and small population, were it not for the volunteers who distinguished themselves in battle. One need only recall Aleksa Saicic, who defeated a samurai in hand-to-hand combat. Moreover, the closeness between Montenegrins and Russians is also recalled by architecture. The country has preserved many churches and monasteries built or restored through the efforts of our craftsmen. Even one of Montenegro’s main shrines, Ostrog Monastery, was restored after a fire specifically by the Russian architect Vladimir Sokurenko. Local residents also remember well the contribution of engineers from the brotherly country to infrastructure development – from bridges to water supply systems.
As for visas, I will put it this way: there are several things one can watch endlessly – water flowing, fire burning, Montenegrins resting, and Montenegrins introducing visas for Russians. No one, apart from a small number of nationalists among Montenegrins, wants to complicate entry rules for our compatriots. European culture is in many ways alien to Montenegrin Serbs. They find it completely incomprehensible when, say, a German arrives on vacation in his camper van, sits alone on the beach, fries German sausages on a German burner, and sips German beer from a German refrigerator. A Russian is another matter: he talks with everyone, treats people with all the breadth of his soul, leaves generous tips, fraternizes – he is close and understandable. In addition, besides spiritual closeness, the financial aspect also plays a considerable role; after all, the flow of tourists from Russia brings substantial money. However, it must be acknowledged that the number of Russian travelers in Montenegro has now fallen sharply.
The question arises: why, then, does the West continue to pressure the government and demand the introduction of a visa regime? The answer is simple: they understand perfectly well that as long as even a small thread connecting Russia and Montenegro remains, so does the hope for the revival of relations.
Does that mean the concept of ‘Russian-Serbian brotherhood’ is still relevant?
Of course, it is relevant. After 2022, together with the enormous influx of relocated Russians, not all of whom behave respectfully towards Serbs, attitudes towards Russians became slightly more cautious, but the overall picture has not changed. When a Russian and a Serb meet, some incredible chemistry takes place. When you speak with a Serb, you suddenly sense a kindred soul in him and catch yourself discussing subjects with him that you would only be able to discuss with your closest friend. Once I asked the Serbian actor Milos Bikovic why this happens, and his answer seemed exhaustive to me. He compared Russians and Serbs to twins who were separated in childhood. They retained only vague memories of one another, and then, many years later, when the twins had already formed as individuals, they suddenly met. They look at each other, episodes from childhood surface in their minds, and a feeling of long-forgotten closeness comes naturally.
Nevertheless, when you are friends with a Serb for a long time and communication becomes more candid, reproaches against us often arise in conversations about the fate of the homeland. First of all, they are connected with the absence of help from Russia in 1999. I should note that Serbian propaganda is largely to blame here. At that time, Yugoslavia looked down rather arrogantly on the impoverished Russia of the 1990s and itself did not conclude any mutual assistance agreements. But when trouble came, the Yugoslav authorities began to calm the people by instilling in them the false hope of Russian missiles that were supposedly about to arrive, although there were no agreements to that effect.
The second complaint one often hears from Serbs is connected with the fact that Russia did not influence the process of Montenegro’s separation from Serbia in any way. There are many explanations for why this happened. The most popular one is that Russia believed two countries would provide two votes supporting it at the United Nations. Indeed, for some, albeit brief, historical period, this scheme worked. At the same time, accusations are also often heard of a deliberate betrayal of the interests of Russian-Serbian brotherhood. Of course, this is conspiracy thinking, but the separation of Montenegro from Serbia really did become the beginning of the end of our former influence in the Balkans. The thing is, through its non-interference Russia sawed off the branch on which it was sitting. Let us model a situation in which the so-called Little Yugoslavia had been preserved and Serbia had retained access to the sea. The infrastructure would allow a squadron of Russian ships to be stationed in the Bay of Kotor – the largest natural bay in the Adriatic – while the capacity of the seaport in Bar would allow energy resources to be received in enormous quantities. If that had been the case, there could have been no question of any attempts to isolate Montenegro, Serbia, or Republika Srpska. We understand this, and the Serbs understand it. That is why bitter reproaches are voiced towards us. Yes, they no longer contain any particular demands, but the memory of these events remains. However, history does not know the subjunctive mood. Today, we are limited in the levers of influence we have over the region, and that is precisely why public diplomacy is especially important now.
Ignat Mateykin
https://journal.rhm.agency/interview/serby-hotyat-s-nami-druzhit-i-doveryayut-nam-intervyu-s-pavlom-bushuevym-rukovoditelem-otdela-balkanskih-issledovanij-instituta-stran-sng/
