{"id":16696,"date":"2026-07-03T12:06:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T09:06:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/balkanclub.business\/?p=16696"},"modified":"2026-07-03T12:17:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T09:17:34","slug":"the-balkan-region-in-the-context-of-the-emerging-us-eu-confrontation-the-case-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balkanclub.business\/en\/2026\/business-news\/the-balkan-region-in-the-context-of-the-emerging-us-eu-confrontation-the-case-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina\/","title":{"rendered":"The Balkan Region in the Context of the Emerging US-EU Confrontation: The Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina"},"content":{"rendered":"

Throughout its history, the Balkan region has frequently become a clash point for geopolitical interests of major players. Today, among the main competitors for influence in the Balkans are the US and the European Union. There are also other strategic divergences between these centres of power \u2013 such as those within the NATO military alliance. Under these circumstances, how do the Balkan states shape their policies? Let us take Bosnia and Herzegovina as a case study.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong>PROSPECTS FOR US-EU RELATIONS
\n<\/strong>According to the Atlantic Council[i]<\/a>, in 2025, the Balkan countries continued to seek increased economic investments primarily from the United States of America and the European Union, including those aimed at greater stability[ii]<\/a> in the region.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the last few years have seen contradictory signals from Washington concerning the prospects for US-EU relations,
\nwith Brussels remaining uncertain about the accession timeline for a number of Western Balkan countries, prioritising Ukraine’s accelerated membership.[iii]<\/a><\/p>\n

The Americans demand that European countries invest more in the North Atlantic alliance and their own security, and President Donald Trump openly threatens to leave NATO due to the allies’ inactivity[iv]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The EU has been actively militarising and significantly increasing its defence spending for some years now[v]<\/a>, which may hypothetically facilitate a smooth transition of leadership within NATO from Washington to Brussels (the latter will still have to purchase American weapons to provide full-scale military support for the Kiev authorities[vi]<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Research centres are analysing the potential ‘Europeanisation’ of the Western military alliance seeking to predict the risks associated with such a development[vii]<\/a>. Experts are discussing regional security in the context of the current political and military climate; yet they neglect a crucial dimension for the Balkans \u2013 the economy, as Washington and Brussels act as the major partners of the Balkan countries in trade and advanced technologies.<\/p>\n

Journalists frequently report on the ‘decoupling’ (or fragmentation) of the global economy, which is associated with the US-China struggle for dominance across various economic sectors[viii]<\/a>. It is probably time to consider this process within the context of US-European relations. As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted, ‘the European Union has become a geopolitical union’[ix]<\/a>, meaning it is ready to fight for its agency.<\/p>\n

MANOEUVRING BETWEEN THE POLES OF INFLUENCE
\n<\/strong>Despite maintaining their progressively deteriorating alliance, the US and EU have always been rivals in terms of investment and the search for new export markets. The evolving landscape of their relations suggests that their financial and economic rivalry will only expand in the coming years, forcing, in one way or another, the Western Balkan countries to manoeuvre between the two poles of influence. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Balkans today remain an arena of political struggle, with the growing rivalry between Washington and Brussels being a side effect of the transformation of the modern system of international relations, in which a rollback of globalisation and the dominance of the ‘peace through strength’ concept are becoming increasingly evident.<\/p>\n

In such turbulent times, the region is bound to face challenging years ahead, and in the near term, its people will have to make a number of crucial decisions. Particular attention should be paid to the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose citizens are to head to the polls for the general election in October.<\/p>\n

In 2025, the leaders of Bosnia and Herzegovina commemorated the thirtieth anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement, which was concluded through the US mediation to end the Bosnian war. A number of memorable events were held to mark this anniversary, including those in Dayton during the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Spring Session[x]<\/a>, as well as in Sarajevo and Washington, D.C., with official representatives of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in attendance.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

US GOALS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA<\/strong>
\nThe US administration is seeking to build a balanced policy toward Bosnia and Herzegovina, proposing large-scale projects to the authorities in Sarajevo and offering support for the entity-level politicians. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

In addition to commercial profit, the tariffs aim to strengthen the US presence and influence[xi]<\/a> in both entities, despite the persistent European opposition[xii]<\/a>, so as to prevent an unmanageable development of political events.<\/p>\n

In 2025, the US Congress passed the Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act[xiii]<\/a> (H.R. 5274). Notably, under the Act, the development of democracy is directly linked to the growth of economic ties. Theoretically, it provides for sanctions against those who have ‘engaged in actions or policies that threaten the peace, security, stability, or territorial integrity of any area or state in the Western Balkans’.<\/p>\n

Although the Bosnian government accuses Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik of these very actions, the US Treasury had previously lifted sanctions against the president[xiv]<\/a> and his political allies[xv]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Simultaneously, the US offers the authorities of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina large-scale infrastructural projects, such as the US-Bosnia Southern Interconnection pipeline[xvi]<\/a>. According to Washington, the project is aimed at reducing the country’s dependence on Russian energy resources[xvii]<\/a> imported through Serbia by replacing them with imports from Croatia (thereby increasing its reliance on American LNG)[xviii]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The pipeline, as the Atlantic Council experts believe, is the best example of a short-term project that can strengthen Bosnian civil and legal institutions and address the interests of ethnic minorities while remaining insulated of their demands.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The <\/strong>EU’s APPROACH
\n<\/strong>The European Union, through its supranational officials in Brussels, is pursuing a completely different path. It fully supports the charges against Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik
\nand holds official talks exclusively with representatives of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina<\/em><\/strong>[xix]<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Europeans have chosen what they believe to be ‘the right side of history’ and intend to uphold it by all available means. EU-Russia relations demonstrate that Brussels politicians are ready to take any measures to maintain their stance, including counterproductive economic and political sanctions. According to a number of research institutes, anti-Russian sanctions have already cost Europe up to $2 trillion[xx]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration believes that the EU’s actions are destabilising the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Balkans as a whole. To preserve the ‘fragile peace’ based on the Dayton Agreement, Washington supports pragmatic relations with the Dodik government.<\/p>\n

Milorad Dodik, who attended the Budapest Conservative Political Action Conference this March \u2013 an event hosted under the auspices of the American Conservative Union[xxi]<\/a> \u2013 seems to have cemented Republika Srpska’s political course. In turn, the authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina are unlikely to abandon building close ties with the US administration (despite their EU accession efforts)[xxii]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In this context, US Vice President JD Vance\u2019s criticism of European nations regarding free speech and election procedures at the 2025 Munich Security Conference is highly symptomatic: by denying Brussels the status of a ‘full-fledged’ democracy, Washington implies that expanding economic ties with external partners is also impossible without American approval. This echoes the theses of the Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act, underlying Washington’s view that ‘democratization’ and ‘development of economic relations’ are intertwined processes.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the Europeans employ clear double standards when choosing partners they want to negotiate with. Romanian presidential candidate George Simion has been accused by Brussels of having a far-right agenda, whereas Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is never condemned by European bureaucrats for the suppression of Russian, Hungarian[xxiii]<\/a>, and Romanian[xxiv]<\/a> ethnic minorities[xxv]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT CAN BALKAN STATES EXPECT?
\n<\/strong>Currently, Washington is not opposing the decision of several Balkan states to pursue European integration. However, the 2025 election in Romania (the second round of which was cancelled under contrived pretexts supported by the EU) showed that the region is gradually becoming an arena of geopolitical struggle between the United States and the European Union<\/em><\/strong>[xxvi]<\/em><\/strong><\/a>. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

On March 11, the European Parliament issued another resolution on expanding the bloc (the European Parliament resolution of 11 March 2026 on the EU enlargement strategy, a non-binding document)[xxvii]<\/a>. The document specifies that Moldova and Ukraine shall accede to the EU as soon as possible, whereas the Western Balkan countries are required to meet all the necessary Maastricht criteria. The text states that the countries of the region are undoubtedly important for the European Union’s security. In other words, it assumes security not for the Balkans but rather at the expense of the Balkans.<\/p>\n

The events in Romania, Brussels’ imposition of quotas for hosting refugees from the Middle East and North Africa, and the current aggressive lobbying of the Hungarian opposition by the EU[xxviii]<\/a> raise questions about the prospects for the region, particularly in terms of security, the migration agenda, and domestic stability.<\/p>\n

The Balkan states may have to make a truly critical choice: to stand up for stability and the status quo for the sake of gradual economic growth or to embark on the path of solidarity with ‘Old Europe’, which in the short term may bring some financial support from development funds and benefits from intensified bilateral trade. However, recalling the EU’s support for nation-building in Ukraine, it is evident that such solidarity carries risks for regional security due to the likely rise of nationalism in the Balkans<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Evgeny Osenkov, Director of The Center of International Cooperation “Russian-Balkan Dialogue”.
\nPhoto: photogenica.ru<\/a><\/strong> by license BalkanDiplomat.<\/em><\/p>\n

Footnotes and notes:
\n<\/strong><\/em>[i]<\/a> The Atlantic Council is an American ‘think tank’ founded in 1961 under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a forum for international political, business and intellectual leaders.<\/em><\/p>\n

[ii]<\/a>https:\/\/learnbridge.institute\/blogs\/2026-will-be-a-big-year-in-the-western-balkans-heres-what-to-watch\/?__cpo=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXRsYW50aWNjb3VuY2lsLm9yZw<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[iii]<\/a>https:\/\/europeanwesternbalkans.com\/2026\/02\/02\/eus-decision-on-membership-of-ukraine-will-affect-enlargement-in-the-western-balkans\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Balkan experts are particularly concerned about the prospect of Ukraine becoming a full member of the European Union by 2027. While this step seems ‘unrealistic’ given the complexity of the EU legislation, some politicians in Brussels are proposing a form of ‘limited membership’ for the country within the Union. This could create a dangerous precedent, especially regarding the EU accession path of Montenegro and Albania, which are viewed as frontrunners of the integration process, as such rapid expansion of the EU without meeting the Maastricht criteria could prove harmful to the entire Union.<\/em><\/p>\n

[iv]<\/a>https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/aerospace-defense\/trump-threatens-nato-exit-scaling-up-tensions-with-allies-2026-04-01\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[v]<\/a>https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/topics\/en\/article\/20190612STO54310\/defence-how-the-eu-is-boosting-its-security<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[vi]<\/a>https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/washington-lobbies-eu-against-buy-european-push-for-weapons-donald-trump\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[vii]<\/a>https:\/\/www.epc.eu\/events\/europeanisation-of-nato-the-european-pillar-and-the-future-of-us-engagement\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[viii]<\/a>https:\/\/hbr.org\/2021\/05\/the-strategic-challenges-of-decoupling<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[ix]<\/a>https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/von-der-leyen-eu-has-matured-into-a-geopolitical-union\/live-66795997<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[x]<\/a>https:\/\/www.nato-pa.int\/news\/nato-pa-commemorates-30-years-dayton-accords-calls-stronger-nato-and-support-ukraine<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xi]<\/a>https:\/\/www.trade.gov\/country-commercial-guides\/bosnia-and-herzegovina-distribution-and-sales-channels<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xii]<\/a>https:\/\/europeanwesternbalkans.com\/2025\/04\/14\/when-elephants-fight-what-trumps-trade-war-means-for-the-balkans\/<\/a> Experts note that the tariffs imposed by President Trump on goods from the EU countries have had a direct effect on the volume of trade between the EU and the Balkan states.<\/em><\/p>\n

[xiii]<\/a>https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/index.php\/bill\/119th-congress\/house-bill\/5274\/text<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xiv]<\/a>https:\/\/balkaninsight.com\/2025\/10\/29\/us-suddenly-lifts-sanctions-on-bosnian-serb-leader-dodik\/bi\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xv]<\/a>https:\/\/balkaninsight.com\/2025\/08\/01\/bosnias-top-court-confirms-serb-leader-dodiks-one-year-prison-sentence\/bi\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xvi]<\/a>https:\/\/balkaninsight.com\/2026\/01\/29\/us-backed-gas-pipeline-would-be-a-win-win-for-bosnia\/bi\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xvii]<\/a> The US claims that Bosnia and Herzegovina is 100% dependent on the Russian gas supplies, which are deemed unreliable.\u00a0 The Southern Interconnection pipeline project will enable Bosnia and Herzegovina to secure a reliable and affordable supply of liquefied natural gas.\u00a0 This will strengthen the energy security of Bosnia and Herzegovina and will deepen its commercial and strategic ties with reliable energy suppliers, particularly the United States. In essence, the pipeline is an alternative to TurkStream.<\/em><\/p>\n

[xviii]<\/a>https:\/\/ba.usembassy.gov\/bosnia-and-herzegovinas-energy-crossroads-time-to-build-the-southern-interconnection\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

The new pipeline is intended to link Bosnia and Herzegovina with the liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on the Croatian island of Krk and thereby to provide an alternative to TurkStream, which supplies Russian gas to BiH through Serbia, according to Berliner Zeitung (BZ). Currently, Bosnia and Herzegovina does not have alternative gas supplies. The cost of the project is estimated at $200 million.<\/em><\/p>\n

[xix]<\/a>https:\/\/www.eeas.europa.eu\/eeas\/bosnia-and-herzegovina-statement-spokesperson-criminal-conviction-appeal-republika-srpska-president_en<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xx]<\/a>https:\/\/hiia.hu\/en\/how-much-economic-pain-have-the-russian-sanctions-caused-europe\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xxi]<\/a> The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) is an annual political conference attended by conservative activists, policy makers, and politicians from across the United States. CPAC is organised by the American Conservative Union (ACU). The first CPAC conference was held in 1974. Since 2022, an international edition of the conference has been hosted by Budapest, Hungary, bringing together Christian conservatives from around the globe.<\/em><\/p>\n

[xxii]<\/a>https:\/\/www1.srna.rs\/novost\/1381615\/dodik-attends-cpac-in-budapest-at-key-gathering-of-leaders-advocating-sovereignty-focused-politics<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xxiii]<\/a>https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/doceo\/document\/E-9-2019-002218_EN.html<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xxiv]<\/a>https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/doceo\/document\/E-9-2023-003695_EN.html<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xxv]<\/a>https:\/\/www.coe.int\/en\/web\/kyiv\/-\/recommendations-for-protecting-the-rights-of-national-minorities-in-ukraine-achievements-and-challenges-on-the-path-to-european-integration<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xxvi]<\/a>https:\/\/www.heritage.org\/europe\/commentary\/crossing-the-anti-democratic-rubicon-europe<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xxvii]<\/a>https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/doceo\/document\/TA-10-2026-03-11_EN.html#sdocta9<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

[xxviii]<\/a>https:\/\/hungarytoday.hu\/u-s-embassy-delegation-holds-talks-with-national-election-office\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

In March of this year, officials from the National Election Office of Hungary met with representatives of the US Embassy. According to news reports, the parties agreed during the negotiations that US observers would monitor the parliamentary elections in Hungary on April 12, in order to prevent a repetition of the ‘Romanian scenario’.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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